An Analysis of the Influence of the Real Estate Industry on the Shanghai Economy
Abstract
This study uses a Shanghai regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a scenario simulation analysis on the influence of real estate from 2021 to 2025. The influence analysis includes the increase in demand and investment in real estate. The results indicate that the real estate demand rise on real and nominal GDP is negative. In contrast, with the total investment remaining the same, the increase in real estate investment has a significant negative impact on real GDP growth. The effect on nominal GDP is positive. Also, the increase in real estate demand and investment positively affects the transfer of Shanghai from the domestic market (ROC), and the latter has a more significant impact. Except for the real estate industry itself, increasing demand or investment in the real estate industry, the effect on the added-value of all other sectors is negative. Due to the crowding-out effect of investment or consumption, Shanghai's real estate demand or investment hurts the real GDP growth. The hypothesis that “Real estate leads to economic growth" is not established in Shanghai during the observation period.